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First Quarter 2024 Tampa Bay Office Market Report and Q2 Forecast

Q1 2024 Important Highlights:

Tampa Bay:

Office Market:

  • Leasing activity and demand has been focused on Class A buildings in Westshore and Central Business District (CBD) in Downtown Tampa, with over 60% of the leasing activity.
  • Westshore and Downtown Tampa asking rents are +/- $7.00 PSF above the average of the surrounding areas, proving the demand for these particular submarkets for their location, amenities and quality buildings
  • Leasing activity is +/- 11% down Year-over-year
  • Vacancy rate in Tampa CBD is 12.8% and Westshore in 19%.

Let’s Talk Rent Numbers:

Submarket Overall Ave.  Asking Rent-All Classes Overall Ave. Asking Rent Class A
Westshore $34.00 Sq. Ft. $39.25 Sq. Ft.
Downtown Tampa $41.45 Sq. Ft. $43.81 Sq. Ft.
Northwest Tampa $27.05 Sq. Ft. $28.38 Sq. Ft.
South Tampa $36.70 Sq. Ft. N/A
I-75 Corridor $26.37 Sq. Ft. $27.10 Sq. Ft.
Downtown St. Petersburg $33.64 Sq. Ft. $35.50 Sq. Ft.

New Development Highlights:

  • Gas Worx: Ybor City real estate investor Darryl Shaw’s Gas Worx is a mixed-use development remaking older industrial and vacant properties between Ybor and the Channel District into a walkable area planned to have over 140,00 square feet of retail and 500,000 square feet of office space is 50% preleased before ground breaking. Grow Financial and Masonite, are the two current anchor Tenants in preleasing.
  • Midtown East: Second phase of Midtown with 177,000 Square Feet of mixed use space is under construction with expected completed in 2024.

2024 2nd Quarter Forecast:

  • Labor Market and Economic Indicators: The tight labor market is expected to remain steady with Tampa Bay being with the unemployment rate likely to be around 3.2%, similar to the previous quarter.
  • Job Creation: Tampa Bay is anticipated to continue as a front-runner in job creation across the state and career growth in the US.
  • Supply:  Increased supply of office space in Suburban areas could and with relocation on larger Tenants between submarkets could lead to increased vacancy if the large footprints are not filled with new to market Tenants.
  • Demand: Demand for buildings in Westshore and Downtown Tampa and St Petersburg, especially Class A buildings will remain consistent and where majority of leasing will occur.

What Does This Mean for Tenants?

Advantages:

  • Increased rent concessions from Landlords: Higher Tenant Improvement allowance towards build outs and providing free rent to decrease overall lease value.
  • Favorable Economic Indicators: Low unemployment rate and steady job growth in Tampa Bay suggest a thriving economy. These indicators can lead to a growing customer base and a higher percentage of identifying qualified employees in the area.

Challenges:

  • Supply: Existing high-quality buildings will leave tenants with few options regarding new space.
  • Construction Costs: Construction costs remain high which increases rental rates for space that require Tenant Improvements.
  • Lead Time: Having timelines with buffer built in will give margin for continued slow construction timelines, for architectural drawings, permit approvals and supply chain issues. Tenants with shorter lead time are subject to focus on move-in ready office spaces.

What Does This Mean for Landlords?

Opportunities:

  • Low Vacancy Rates For Smaller Suites: Move-in ready Suites under 2,500 SF and are being leased quickly in the Urban Core.
  • Turn Key and Spec Suites: Turn key Suites under 3,500 SF for Tenants to quickly move into will provide a competitive advantage over other vacant competing Suites for Tenants who do not have enough lead time for long construction timelines.
  • Urban Core: The urban core continues to attract persistent demand. Tenants may be competing for the same Suites which positions Landlord’s to be more selective when evaluating Tenants.

Considerations:

  • Tenant Selection: Ensuring that potential Tenants have a strong financial standing and can alleviate risks associated with Tenant turnover or payment issues.
  • Tenant Retention: Historically, it is more cost effective to maintain a Tenant then marketing, leasing and Tenant Improvement costs to acquire a new Tenant. Maintaining positive Landlord-Tenant relationships and providing excellent customer service can help ensure Tenants choose to renew their leases, reducing turnover and associated costs.
  • Building Location: Buildings located in Suburban areas outside of Urban Core and Westshore will have to be more aggressive with giving free rent, adjusting asking rents and consider adding value ad common areas for Tenants such as shared conference room and etc.
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Florida Sales Tax on Commercial Leases Starting December 1, 2023

Surprise to companies who expand or relocate to Florida, Florida is the only state that charges sales tax on commercial leases. Each year this number can fluctuate based on the decisions in Tallahassee and typically is in effect first quarter of the following year. A great surprise for our state, Christmas and Hannukah came early this year with a 1.5% discount from the state effective December 1, 2023. For example, in Hillsborough County, sales tax on commercial leases has been 7% through out 2023.

As you see in the below graphic, each county has their own additional taxes that are included in this number. Historically, Hillsborough County is one of the highest.

Always consult your CPA for tax advice especially for in municipalities that collect other taxes such as nuances in Oldsmar, Tarpon Springs, Wesley Chapel and Zephryhills.

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How Work Has Transformed From A Place To An Action: The Purpose of Office Space

PreCovid you would hear “I’m going to work” it was always a place to go.

Post Covid + technology you can work from anywhere, you now hear more “I need to work” or “I am working”.

Here’s the question I believe every company has to consider:

💡If work can (for the most part) be done anywhere, what’s the purpose of your office space for your people and company ?

—-> Funnel your office space discussions through this answer.

—> This will help you determine:

• Location
• Price point
• How much space you need
• The type of layout

All are used to fulfill the purpose.

The “we‘ve always done it this way”, doesn’t cut it any more. You have to dig deeper into the WHY behind having an office.

My counter parts would not want me to say this: Is having a full time office space obsolete for some companies? (keyword “some”) Definitely.

Does that apply to everyone, not at all.

We are in a unique situation being presented with the opportunity to redefine and revitalize purpose of office space and how to effectively use it as a tool for your company. Most importantly when attracting and keeping the right talent for your company.

What have you found in your company culture is the purpose of your office space?

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3rd Quarter 2023 Tampa Bay Office Market Report and Q4 Forecast

Important Highlights:

Tampa Bay:

Office Market:

  • Majority of activity and demand has been focused on Westshore and Central Business District (CBD) vs the suburbs which is consistent with the flight to quality trend by Tenants.
  • Class A buildings made up of over 60% plus of leasing activity in Q3 over the suburban areas.
  • Asking rents in Class A Buildings have increased by +/-6%
  • Direct asking rents are up 1% and Class A and B building in the Westshore and CBD areas for the third quarter in a row.
  • Vacancy rate in Tampa CBD is 13% and Westshore in 18%.

Let’s Talk Rent Numbers:

Submarket Overall Average Asking Rent-All Classes Overall Asking Rent Class A
Westshore $33.50 Sq. Ft. $37.01 Sq. Ft.
Downtown Tampa $40.00 Sq. Ft. $41.80 Sq. Ft.
Northwest Tampa $26.75 Sq. Ft. $27.90 Sq. Ft.
South Tampa $34.50 Sq. Ft. N/A
I-75 Corridor $26.50 Sq. Ft. $27.50 Sq. Ft.
Downtown St. Petersburg $33.40 Sq. Ft. $36.00 Sq. Ft.

Building Highlights:

  • Gas Worx: Ybor City real estate investor Darryl Shaw’s Gas Worx is a mixed-use development remaking older industrial and vacant properties between Ybor and the Channel District into a walkable area. The first phase, including 317 apartments and retail space, began construction in October and is set to open in spring 2024. A second apartment community with 370 apartments and retail will begin construction later in 2023. At full build-out, Gas Worx is planned to have nearly 5,000 residences, 140,000 square feet of retail, and 500,000 square feet of office space.
  • Ybor Harbor: Adjacent to Gas Worx, Darryl Shaw has unveiled plans for Ybor Harbor, a 33-acre mixed-use waterfront development on Ybor Channel south of Adamo Drive. The project aims to connect Ybor to the Channel District and downtown and will include up to six million square feet of residential, office, hotel, and retail space. Plans also include the development of a public area with piers, boat slips, green space, and a boardwalk lined with restaurants and shops.
  • Tampa’s Riverfront: The development boom along downtown Tampa’s riverfront continues, with projects like the 31-story luxury apartment tower Arts and Entertainment Residences and the Pendry Residences Tampa luxury riverfront hotel and condominium tower. The Tampa Convention Center is also undergoing a $38 million expansion, adding new waterfront meeting and event rooms.

2023 4th Quarter Forecast:

  • Labor Market and Economic Indicators: The tight labor market is expected to remain steady, with the unemployment rate likely to be around 3.2%, similar to the previous quarter.
  • Job Creation: Tampa Bay is anticipated to continue as a front-runner in job creation across the state, contributing to further employment growth.
  • Supply: Overall vacancy rates are projected to remain low
  • Demand: Leasing is expected to be steady into fourth quarter with majority in focused in CBD and Westshore in Class A and Trophy buildings.

What does this mean for Tenants?

Advantages:

  • Increased rent concessions from Landlords: Higher Tenant Improvement allowance towards build outs and providing free rent to decrease overall lease value.
  • Favorable Economic Indicators: The low unemployment rate and steady job growth in Tampa Bay suggest a thriving economy. For Tenants, this means a potentially larger customer base and a higher likelihood of finding qualified employees in the area.
  • Sublease Options: Sublease options can provide favorable for Tenants who prefer a shorter lease term and below market rent especially for those looking for 10,000 RSF and up.

Challenges:

  • Turn Key Options: Construction costs are still record high and the lack of turn key “Spec Spaces” Landlords have available for Tenant’s who require immediate move can require Tenant’s to lease Suites do not provide the desired layout for Tenants.
  • Lead Time: Having timelines with buffer built in will give margin for continued slow construction timelines, for architectural drawings, permit approvals and supply chain issues.

What does this mean for Landlords?

Opportunities:

  • Low Vacancy Rates For Smaller Suites: Suites under 5,000 SF and under spaces are being leased quickly.
  • Turn Key and Spec Suites: Having turn key Suites under 5,000 SF for Tenants to quickly move into will provide a competitive advantage over other vacant competing Suites for Tenants who do not have enough lead time for long construction timelines.

Considerations:

  • Tenant Selection: Ensuring that potential Tenants have a strong financial standing and align with the property’s intended use can help minimize risks associated with tenant turnover or payment issues.
  • Tenant Retention: Attracting new Tenants is essential and Landlords should also prioritize Tenant retention. Historically, it is more cost effective to maintain a Tenant then marketing, leasing and Tenant Improvement costs to acquire a new Tenant. Maintaining positive Landlord-Tenant relationships and providing excellent customer service can help ensure Tenants choose to renew their leases, reducing turnover and associated costs.
  • Building Location: If buildings are located in Suburban areas outside of CBD and Westshore will have to be more aggressive with Concessions and adjusting asking rent.