Chelsea Drinkard No Comments

3rd Quarter 2023 Tampa Bay Office Market Report and Q4 Forecast

Important Highlights:

Tampa Bay:

Office Market:

  • Majority of activity and demand has been focused on Westshore and Central Business District (CBD) vs the suburbs which is consistent with the flight to quality trend by Tenants.
  • Class A buildings made up of over 60% plus of leasing activity in Q3 over the suburban areas.
  • Asking rents in Class A Buildings have increased by +/-6%
  • Direct asking rents are up 1% and Class A and B building in the Westshore and CBD areas for the third quarter in a row.
  • Vacancy rate in Tampa CBD is 13% and Westshore in 18%.

Let’s Talk Rent Numbers:

Submarket Overall Average Asking Rent-All Classes Overall Asking Rent Class A
Westshore $33.50 Sq. Ft. $37.01 Sq. Ft.
Downtown Tampa $40.00 Sq. Ft. $41.80 Sq. Ft.
Northwest Tampa $26.75 Sq. Ft. $27.90 Sq. Ft.
South Tampa $34.50 Sq. Ft. N/A
I-75 Corridor $26.50 Sq. Ft. $27.50 Sq. Ft.
Downtown St. Petersburg $33.40 Sq. Ft. $36.00 Sq. Ft.

Building Highlights:

  • Gas Worx: Ybor City real estate investor Darryl Shaw’s Gas Worx is a mixed-use development remaking older industrial and vacant properties between Ybor and the Channel District into a walkable area. The first phase, including 317 apartments and retail space, began construction in October and is set to open in spring 2024. A second apartment community with 370 apartments and retail will begin construction later in 2023. At full build-out, Gas Worx is planned to have nearly 5,000 residences, 140,000 square feet of retail, and 500,000 square feet of office space.
  • Ybor Harbor: Adjacent to Gas Worx, Darryl Shaw has unveiled plans for Ybor Harbor, a 33-acre mixed-use waterfront development on Ybor Channel south of Adamo Drive. The project aims to connect Ybor to the Channel District and downtown and will include up to six million square feet of residential, office, hotel, and retail space. Plans also include the development of a public area with piers, boat slips, green space, and a boardwalk lined with restaurants and shops.
  • Tampa’s Riverfront: The development boom along downtown Tampa’s riverfront continues, with projects like the 31-story luxury apartment tower Arts and Entertainment Residences and the Pendry Residences Tampa luxury riverfront hotel and condominium tower. The Tampa Convention Center is also undergoing a $38 million expansion, adding new waterfront meeting and event rooms.

2023 4th Quarter Forecast:

  • Labor Market and Economic Indicators: The tight labor market is expected to remain steady, with the unemployment rate likely to be around 3.2%, similar to the previous quarter.
  • Job Creation: Tampa Bay is anticipated to continue as a front-runner in job creation across the state, contributing to further employment growth.
  • Supply: Overall vacancy rates are projected to remain low
  • Demand: Leasing is expected to be steady into fourth quarter with majority in focused in CBD and Westshore in Class A and Trophy buildings.

What does this mean for Tenants?

Advantages:

  • Increased rent concessions from Landlords: Higher Tenant Improvement allowance towards build outs and providing free rent to decrease overall lease value.
  • Favorable Economic Indicators: The low unemployment rate and steady job growth in Tampa Bay suggest a thriving economy. For Tenants, this means a potentially larger customer base and a higher likelihood of finding qualified employees in the area.
  • Sublease Options: Sublease options can provide favorable for Tenants who prefer a shorter lease term and below market rent especially for those looking for 10,000 RSF and up.

Challenges:

  • Turn Key Options: Construction costs are still record high and the lack of turn key “Spec Spaces” Landlords have available for Tenant’s who require immediate move can require Tenant’s to lease Suites do not provide the desired layout for Tenants.
  • Lead Time: Having timelines with buffer built in will give margin for continued slow construction timelines, for architectural drawings, permit approvals and supply chain issues.

What does this mean for Landlords?

Opportunities:

  • Low Vacancy Rates For Smaller Suites: Suites under 5,000 SF and under spaces are being leased quickly.
  • Turn Key and Spec Suites: Having turn key Suites under 5,000 SF for Tenants to quickly move into will provide a competitive advantage over other vacant competing Suites for Tenants who do not have enough lead time for long construction timelines.

Considerations:

  • Tenant Selection: Ensuring that potential Tenants have a strong financial standing and align with the property’s intended use can help minimize risks associated with tenant turnover or payment issues.
  • Tenant Retention: Attracting new Tenants is essential and Landlords should also prioritize Tenant retention. Historically, it is more cost effective to maintain a Tenant then marketing, leasing and Tenant Improvement costs to acquire a new Tenant. Maintaining positive Landlord-Tenant relationships and providing excellent customer service can help ensure Tenants choose to renew their leases, reducing turnover and associated costs.
  • Building Location: If buildings are located in Suburban areas outside of CBD and Westshore will have to be more aggressive with Concessions and adjusting asking rent.
Chelsea Drinkard No Comments

Operating Expense Reconciliation

 

 

What exactly is operating expense reconciliation, and why is it becoming increasingly important in the Tampa market?

As a Tenant in a commercial building in Tampa, you may be familiar with receiving an invoice from the Landlord for the reconciliation of the building’s operating expenses from the previous year. Typically, by May of each year, the Landlord will send you a notice with an invoice for any amount owed or a credit to your rent. If you are in a Full Service or Modified Gross lease, what are you receiving an additional invoice or credit in the first quarter of the following year?

Operating expense reconciliation is the process by which a Landlord calculates the actual operating expenses for a building over the previous year by reconciling the estimated budget expenses which were used for the Base Year of a lease compared to the actual expenses of the building for the previous year. The difference between the estimated expenses and the actual expenses is known as the “reconciliation amount.” If the actual expenses were higher than the estimated expenses, the Landlord will send an invoice to a Tenant for the amount due above the Base Year. If the actual expenses were lower than the estimated expenses, the Landlord will usually apply a credit of that amount to the monthly rent.

Why are operating expenses more crucial in the Tampa market? 

Hurricanes are a common occurrence in Florida, and the resulting damage can be significant and dramatically increase building insurance.  Hurricane Ian in 2022, insurance rates for commercial buildings in Tampa have been increasing dramatically over the past few years. Secondly, the value of commercial buildings has increased, especially in the City of Tampa, therefore so have the Real Estate Taxes. 

Landlords are responsible for holding an insurance policy on the building and passing on the cost of insurance to Tenants as a part of the building’s operating expenses. Depending on the type of lease you have, these pass-throughs will impact Tenants differently. A Full-Service lease, the rent includes the Tenant’s operating expenses, including insurance and are only responsible for the portion above your base year. 

If a Tenant has a Modified Gross lease with an Expense Stop, rent includes a certain amount for operating expenses that was agreed upon in the lease, and any expenses above that amount are passed on to the Tenant. For example, any increase in insurance rates will only impact a Tenant if the actual expenses exceed the expense stop.

How can Tenant’s prepare for operating expense reconciliation in the Tampa market? First and foremost, understand the terms of the lease and how the operating expenses are calculated. Always reach out to the Landlord or Property Manager with questions or concerns.

Consider negotiating the lease terms at renewal or when signing a new lease to establish the highest Base Year possible. For example, if you have a Full-Service lease, negotiating a cap on the amount rent can increase due to operating expenses. These caps often exclude non controllable expenses i.e. Real Estate Taxes and insurance but can still be beneficial. A Modified Gross lease, negotiating a higher expense stop can aid in avoiding additional pass throughs. 

Building operating expense reconciliation is a critical part of commercial leasing in the Tampa market, and it is becoming even more important due to the impact of hurricanes on insurance rates. Tenants must understand lease terms and how operating expenses are calculated. 

If your commercial lease is ending soon or questions on your operating expense pass through reconciliation, give us a call for a free consultation: 813-289-3700.

 

Chelsea Drinkard No Comments

1st Quarter 2023 Tampa Bay Office Market Report and Q2 Forecast

white and blue concrete building under blue sky during daytime

Important Highlights:

Tampa Bay:

Tampa Bay’s commercial real estate market is thriving, with a strong demand for office space, particularly in the downtown area. The growing population and job market in Tampa have contributed to the demand for office space, and many companies have relocated to the area in recent years. According to Forbes Tampa is ranked the number one city for small businesses and the number two emerging tech hub. 

  • Pinellas County
    • Industrial vacancy rate is 3.2%
    • $12.62 SF NNN flex/warehouse
    • $7.86 SF NN warehouse distribution
    • 258,068 SF under construction
  • Hillsborough County
    • Industrial vacancy rate is 5.2%
    • $13.98 SF NNN flex/warehouse is $13.98 SF
    • $7.04 SF NNN for warehouse distribution
    • 2,772,283 SF under construction

Office Market:

  • $35.40 PSF Class A Average
  • The direct asking rents for Class A Buildings. up Approx. 3.9% year-over-year
  • Vacancy rate got Class A Buildings is Approx. 10%
  • Turn-key spec office spaces that are move-in ready for companies with pressing deadlines continue to be in demand who do not have the time to wait for permitting and construction timelines. 

Let’s Talk Rent Numbers:

Submarket Overall Average Asking Rent-All Classes Overall Asking Rent Class A
Westshore $34.05 Sq. Ft.  $38.51 Sq. Ft.
Downtown Tampa $29.19 Sq. Ft. $31.95 Sq. Ft.
Northwest Tampa $27.65 Sq. Ft. $27.79 Sq. Ft.
South Tampa $21.00 Sq. Ft. N/A
I-75 Corridor $26.78 Sq. Ft. $26.99 Sq. Ft.
Downtown St. Petersburg $32.19 Sq. Ft. $31.55 Sq. Ft.

Building Highlights: 

  • Mixed-use developments continue to be at the forefront of new construction.
  • “Miami-based Related Group purchased 6 acres on the west bank of the Hillsborough River — what will become the Riverfront district. 
  • Ybor City developer Darryl Shaw is assembling roughly 25 acres of closely watched waterfront land along the Ybor Channel.
  • Strategic Property Partners, the developer of Water Street Tampa, has demolished the former Ardent Mills flour plant between the Channel district and downtown Tampa to make way for Water Street’s second phase.” Read more of the upcoming developments here. 

2023 2nd Quarter Forecast:

  • To sustain teamwork, camaraderie, and creative collisions, companies may adopt flexible schedules based on personnel who operate in the same teams or departments. 
  • Tampa Bay will continue to see out-of-state businesses migrate and expand to the area, and demand for under 5,000 SF office space could remain high.
  • The primary concern was the blurring of boundaries between home and work. As a consequence, throughout 2022, there was a gradual rise in the number of professionals opting for a partial return to the office, which persisted consistently month after month.

What does this mean for Tenants?

  • Tenants should evaluate what is the best long-term solution for their company, considering the well-being of the company and the possibility of a hybrid, remote, or in-office job. While vacancy rates in Tampa remain low, landlords may offer rent abatement and increased Tenant Improvement allowances due to high construction costs.
  • Tenants who delay office space matters until the last minute will find themselves at a disadvantage, with few alternatives and minimal, if any, leverage for negotiating based on construction timelines and competing availability.

What does this mean for Landlords?

  • Landlords must consider increasing Tenant Improvement allowances for construction expenses to provide basic building standards and Tenant-specific finishing to compete for the right Tenants.
  • Profit margins may be impacted by inflation, but increased rents and 3-4% annual increases can aid in the impact of inflation. Providing turn-key spec office spaces that are move-in ready for companies with pressing deadlines can help capture tenants.
Chelsea Drinkard No Comments

The Rise of Florida Commercial Real Estate Market Trends

Florida's commercial real estate markets poised for continued growth - South Florida Business Journal

 

The Rise of Florida Commercial Real Estate Market Trends

The Commercial Real Estate market in Florida has experienced significant growth and change over the past few years. Due to the state’s favorable business climate, growing population, and low taxes have made it an attractive destination for companies looking to expand or relocate. We will discuss five of the current trends in Florida’s Commercial Real Estate market.

Growth of the Industrial Warehouse Sector

With The rise of e-commerce and online shopping and specifically service-based industries in Florida,  the demand for warehouse and distribution facilities has increased significantly. As a result, developers are building larger and more sophisticated industrial buildings to meet this demand. According to CBRE Florida ranks third in the nation for the total square footage of new industrial construction.

Flight To Quality and Flexible Office Arrangements 

The growth of remote work and the gig economy, many companies are seeking flexible workspace solutions that can accommodate their changing needs. Co-working spaces, which offer shared office space and amenities, have become increasingly popular in Florida’s urban areas. We are calling a “flight to quality” for companies who are choosing to lease office space in locations with buildings that provide amenities for Tenants and located where their ideal employers live, work and play. In Tampa, we are seeing this example in Westshore and Downtown Tampa. 

The Hospitality Sector Has Bounced Back and There Is No Looking Back

Florida’s tourism industry continues to thrive, with record numbers of visitors each year. According to Visit Florida, the state’s official tourism marketing corporation, Florida welcomed a record-breaking 135.5 million visitors in 2022. As a result, developers are building new hotels and resorts to meet the demand. Additionally, there is a growing trend of mixed-use developments that combine hotel, residential, and retail space. In Tampa Bay we have experienced an influx of new restaurants in Downtown Tampa’s Water Street community and Midtown, both mixed use developments which opened their doors to Tenants and patrons in the past two years. 

Retail Isn’t Dead, It Might Look a Little Different Though

Florida’s retail sector has been impacted by the growth of e-commerce, with many brick-and-mortar retailers struggling to compete. Fair to say we will be seeing changes in malls and the reuse of some of the big box Tenants being reimagined to smaller footprints and more experienced focused purposes. 

Florida’s favorable business climate and growing population have created opportunities for retail developers who can provide unique shopping experiences. According to Macro Trends Tampa Bays Population was 2,945,000 in 2022 and currently 2,977,000 in 2023. For example, outdoor shopping centers that offer dining, entertainment, and community events have become popular in Florida’s urban areas. Midtown which is centrally located between Westshore, South Tampa and Downtown Tampa is a prime example of new national retailers and restaurants who have expanded into Tampa Bay. 

Race for Multifamily Developers

Florida’s population is projected to continue to grow, with many young professionals and retirees moving to Florida. As a result, developers are building new apartment buildings and condominiums to meet the demand. Tenant’s are demanding convenience and desiring more than an apartment but built in a community with a small grocery and other day to day needs. No longer are the days where developers are delivering apartment complexes without a retail component for their Tenants.

Florida’s commercial real estate market is evolving to meet the increased demand by population growth plus the lack of existing housing. Florida’s  favorable business climate and low taxes are playing a key role in driving the economy forward. Developers are building larger and more sophisticated industrial buildings, co-working spaces and flexible office arrangements are becoming increasingly popular, and the hospitality, retail, and multifamily sectors are all experiencing growth. As the state’s economy continues to thrive, it is likely that these trends will continue, creating opportunities for real estate investors and developers in Florida.



Chelsea Drinkard No Comments

4th Quarter 2022 Tampa Bay Office Market Report and Q1 Forecast

Important Highlights:

Tampa Bay:

  • Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties’ unemployment rate of 2.6% is drastically lower than the nation’s rate of 3.7%. 
  • Year over year, average asking rates remained the same, falling by little than 1 cent per square foot. 
  • The Tampa Bay area continued to win awards for its workforce, with Lightcast ranking Florida as the top state and Hillsborough as the eighth-best county for talent attraction in 2022. 

Office Market:

  • Vacancy increased to just over 20% primarily due to the increase in large sublease space that came back to the market totaling Approx. 900,000 SF
  • Leasing activity was robust, over 3 million SF leased but did not hit record-breaking numbers in 2021. Over 80% of the activity was accounted for in Hillsborough County and a substantial decrease in Pinellas County. Westshore experienced the most leasing activity.
  • Direct Face Rents were up over 1% compared to Q4 2021. 
  • Direct absorption trended favorably, finishing the year with more than 105,000 square feet. In addition, the main submarkets’ combined direct absorption of 535,000 square feet per year, comprising Westshore and CBD markets, highlights those submarkets’ demand under the current economic uncertainty.

                                                   

Let’s Talk Rent Numbers:

Submarket Overall Average Asking Rent-All Classes Overall Asking Rent Class A
Westshore $34.01 Sq. Ft.  $38.81 Sq. Ft.
Downtown Tampa $29.19 Sq. Ft. $31.95 Sq. Ft.
Northwest Tampa $26.17 Sq. Ft. $28.19 Sq. Ft.
South Tampa $23.82 Sq. Ft. N/A
I-75 Corridor $26.08 Sq. Ft. $27.22 Sq. Ft.
Downtown St. Petersburg $28.29 Sq. Ft. $34.61 Sq. Ft.

 

Building Highlights: 

  • Despite the current economic instability, such submarkets continue to be in great demand. As they search for space in mixed-use buildings, Tenants like Aviation Authority, White & Case, and Primo Water moved into 174,000 s.f. of new construction in Westshore and Tampa CBD this year. Companies believe these mixed-use developments may entice workers back to the workplace.
  • A focus on a flight to quality buildings providing Tenant focused amenities and strategically located where employees currently live, near their grocery store, gym, and where they spend free time.

2023 1st Quarter Forecast:

  • The regularity for businesses to invite workers back into the office will continue to rise. In order to sustain teamwork, camaraderie, and creative collisions, those that have flexible schedules may find it advantageous to base their scheduling on personnel who operate in the same teams or departments. 
  • If a business delays office space matters [renewing a lease vs. relocating] until the last minute, Tenants will find themselves at a disadvantage, with few alternatives, and minimal, if any leverage with negotiating based on the construction timelines and competing for availability in popular submarkets such as Westshore and Downtown Tampa. 
  • Tampa Bay will continue to see out-of-state businesses migrate and expand to Tampa Bay. 
  • Demand for under 5,000 SF office space could continue to remain high

What does this mean for Tenants?

  • Evaluate what is the best long solution for your company. What is best for the long-term well-being of the company. In a world where some work is moving more remote, how could mentoring, professional growth, and possibilities for younger employees look? Is it a hybrid, remote, or in-office job? 
  • Vacancy rates continue to be lower in comparison to those in other major US cities and are not feeling the same “pain” despite the fact that Landlords are more prepared to offer rent abatement and increased Tenant Improvement allowance due to high construction costs.

What does this mean for Landlords?

  • In order to provide at least basic building standards and Tenant specific finishing, Landlord’s must consider increasing Tenant Improvements allowances for construction expenses to compete for the right Tenants.

  • Profit margins will be impacted by inflation, but increased rents and 3-4% annual increases can aid in the impact of inflation.

  • Capturing Tenants will be easier when Landlord’s provide turn-key spec office spaces that are move-in ready for companies with pressing deadlines.