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3rd Quarter 2023 Tampa Bay Office Market Report and Q4 Forecast

Important Highlights:

Tampa Bay:

Office Market:

  • Majority of activity and demand has been focused on Westshore and Central Business District (CBD) vs the suburbs which is consistent with the flight to quality trend by Tenants.
  • Class A buildings made up of over 60% plus of leasing activity in Q3 over the suburban areas.
  • Asking rents in Class A Buildings have increased by +/-6%
  • Direct asking rents are up 1% and Class A and B building in the Westshore and CBD areas for the third quarter in a row.
  • Vacancy rate in Tampa CBD is 13% and Westshore in 18%.

Let’s Talk Rent Numbers:

Submarket Overall Average Asking Rent-All Classes Overall Asking Rent Class A
Westshore $33.50 Sq. Ft. $37.01 Sq. Ft.
Downtown Tampa $40.00 Sq. Ft. $41.80 Sq. Ft.
Northwest Tampa $26.75 Sq. Ft. $27.90 Sq. Ft.
South Tampa $34.50 Sq. Ft. N/A
I-75 Corridor $26.50 Sq. Ft. $27.50 Sq. Ft.
Downtown St. Petersburg $33.40 Sq. Ft. $36.00 Sq. Ft.

Building Highlights:

  • Gas Worx: Ybor City real estate investor Darryl Shaw’s Gas Worx is a mixed-use development remaking older industrial and vacant properties between Ybor and the Channel District into a walkable area. The first phase, including 317 apartments and retail space, began construction in October and is set to open in spring 2024. A second apartment community with 370 apartments and retail will begin construction later in 2023. At full build-out, Gas Worx is planned to have nearly 5,000 residences, 140,000 square feet of retail, and 500,000 square feet of office space.
  • Ybor Harbor: Adjacent to Gas Worx, Darryl Shaw has unveiled plans for Ybor Harbor, a 33-acre mixed-use waterfront development on Ybor Channel south of Adamo Drive. The project aims to connect Ybor to the Channel District and downtown and will include up to six million square feet of residential, office, hotel, and retail space. Plans also include the development of a public area with piers, boat slips, green space, and a boardwalk lined with restaurants and shops.
  • Tampa’s Riverfront: The development boom along downtown Tampa’s riverfront continues, with projects like the 31-story luxury apartment tower Arts and Entertainment Residences and the Pendry Residences Tampa luxury riverfront hotel and condominium tower. The Tampa Convention Center is also undergoing a $38 million expansion, adding new waterfront meeting and event rooms.

2023 4th Quarter Forecast:

  • Labor Market and Economic Indicators: The tight labor market is expected to remain steady, with the unemployment rate likely to be around 3.2%, similar to the previous quarter.
  • Job Creation: Tampa Bay is anticipated to continue as a front-runner in job creation across the state, contributing to further employment growth.
  • Supply: Overall vacancy rates are projected to remain low
  • Demand: Leasing is expected to be steady into fourth quarter with majority in focused in CBD and Westshore in Class A and Trophy buildings.

What does this mean for Tenants?

Advantages:

  • Increased rent concessions from Landlords: Higher Tenant Improvement allowance towards build outs and providing free rent to decrease overall lease value.
  • Favorable Economic Indicators: The low unemployment rate and steady job growth in Tampa Bay suggest a thriving economy. For Tenants, this means a potentially larger customer base and a higher likelihood of finding qualified employees in the area.
  • Sublease Options: Sublease options can provide favorable for Tenants who prefer a shorter lease term and below market rent especially for those looking for 10,000 RSF and up.

Challenges:

  • Turn Key Options: Construction costs are still record high and the lack of turn key “Spec Spaces” Landlords have available for Tenant’s who require immediate move can require Tenant’s to lease Suites do not provide the desired layout for Tenants.
  • Lead Time: Having timelines with buffer built in will give margin for continued slow construction timelines, for architectural drawings, permit approvals and supply chain issues.

What does this mean for Landlords?

Opportunities:

  • Low Vacancy Rates For Smaller Suites: Suites under 5,000 SF and under spaces are being leased quickly.
  • Turn Key and Spec Suites: Having turn key Suites under 5,000 SF for Tenants to quickly move into will provide a competitive advantage over other vacant competing Suites for Tenants who do not have enough lead time for long construction timelines.

Considerations:

  • Tenant Selection: Ensuring that potential Tenants have a strong financial standing and align with the property’s intended use can help minimize risks associated with tenant turnover or payment issues.
  • Tenant Retention: Attracting new Tenants is essential and Landlords should also prioritize Tenant retention. Historically, it is more cost effective to maintain a Tenant then marketing, leasing and Tenant Improvement costs to acquire a new Tenant. Maintaining positive Landlord-Tenant relationships and providing excellent customer service can help ensure Tenants choose to renew their leases, reducing turnover and associated costs.
  • Building Location: If buildings are located in Suburban areas outside of CBD and Westshore will have to be more aggressive with Concessions and adjusting asking rent.
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How To Reduce the Cost of Office Space While Reviving the Employee Experience

The title of this article might sound unachievable but you can reduce your office space overhead while enhancing your employees’ experience. Evaluating current office space requirements and forecasting for the future can be difficult when we are faced with evolving workplace priorities and norms.

Strategy and intentionality are both needed to use office space as a tool. Below are three questions to get this conversation started:

  • “What is the purpose of our office space?”
  • “Why do we want our employees to come into the office?”
  • Most importantly, “What is the value for our employees to be at the office?”

Research shows there are three main factors that can reduce the cost of office while, simultaneously reviving the employee experience.

Flight To Quality

Flight to quality is Tenant trend we have been seeing in commercial real estate since 2021. Business opting to lease office space in Class A buildings with enhanced Tenant amenities and located in desirable submarkets surrounded with mixed live, work and play options. Is there a Publix near bar or gym options in the area? Having your office located within an area with your employees are already going reduces the mental barrier commute.

Optimize

Taking a look around your office space to determine if the current lay out is adding value and facilitating the characteristics required for employees to thrive. What can result from this exercise is realizing the company needs smaller office space for rent in Tampa.

  • Are there excess or oversized offices?
  • Too many work stations? Are work stations not optimally laid out for the organization effectiveness and work flow between departments?
  • Are small conference and break out rooms needed for team meetings?
  • Would retrofitting the layout be ideal to provide lounge areas and multipurpose areas for employees?

Experience

While employees are at the office, is their presence at the office intentional and purposeful? Employees being required to go into the office without a strategic and mindful reason do not communicate the value in person presence for those who are giving pushback on commuting to the office. Creating a schedule and effective communication to ensure the employees in the same teams are at the office on the same day is beneficial for face-to-face meetings and creative problem solving.

Having a Tenant Representative can when looking for office space for rent in Tampa or evaluating your current office space, are a great resource in sifting through these questions and decision making. Give Office Space Brokers a call for a free consultation: 813-289-3700.

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2nd Quarter 2023 Tampa Bay Office Market Report and Q3 Forecast

Important Highlights:

Tampa Bay:

  • The metro area’s unemployment rate has reached an impressive low of 3.1% compared to the 3.5% national average. Companies have benefited from steady employment gains, particularly in sectors such as professional and business services, witnessing a remarkable increase of 4.9%, and information services, which experienced an impressive job growth rate of 7.7%
  • The addition of 30,898 jobs, indicating a notable job growth rate of 1.2%
  • Forbes’ named Tampa Bay as the 2nd best city for Young Entrepreneurs and the second emerging tech hub, further bolstering its appeal and contributing to the city’s economic prosperity.
  • KPMG ranked Tampa Bay as the 3rd most cost-friendly U.S. business location
  • Tampa Bay’s business-friendly environment and promising opportunities continue to make it an attractive destination for companies seeking to establish and expand their presence on a global scale.

Office Market:

  • Asking rents in Class A Buildings have increased by +/-9%
  • Vacancy has increased since the pandemic in 202o from +/- 10% to 14%,  however, Q1 and Q2 of 2023 have remained the same.
  • The region’s expanding population and thriving job market have played pivotal roles in attracting numerous companies to move to Tampa in recent times and thus limiting vacancy rates compared to other comparable cities.
  • Available sublease space has grown by over 90% but interesting to not the majority of the available sublease spaces are 10,000 SF and up.

Let’s Talk Rent Numbers:

Submarket Overall Average Asking Rent-All Classes Overall Asking Rent Class A
Westshore $33.50 Sq. Ft.  $37.01 Sq. Ft.
Downtown Tampa $33.75 Sq. Ft. $36.00 Sq. Ft.
Northwest Tampa $24.25 Sq. Ft. $26.50 Sq. Ft.
South Tampa $21.00 Sq. Ft. N/A
I-75 Corridor $24.25 Sq. Ft. $27.12 Sq. Ft.
Downtown St. Petersburg $31.50 Sq. Ft. $35.85 Sq. Ft.

Building Highlights: 

  • Gas Worx: Ybor City real estate investor Darryl Shaw’s Gas Worx is a mixed-use development remaking older industrial and vacant properties between Ybor and the Channel District into a walkable area. The first phase, including 317 apartments and retail space, began construction in October and is set to open in spring 2024. A second apartment community with 370 apartments and retail will begin construction later in 2023. At full build-out, Gas Worx is planned to have nearly 5,000 residences, 140,000 square feet of retail, and 500,000 square feet of office space.
  • Ybor Harbor: Adjacent to Gas Worx, Darryl Shaw has unveiled plans for Ybor Harbor, a 33-acre mixed-use waterfront development on Ybor Channel south of Adamo Drive. The project aims to connect Ybor to the Channel District and downtown and will include up to six million square feet of residential, office, hotel, and retail space. Plans also include the development of a public area with piers, boat slips, green space, and a boardwalk lined with restaurants and shops.
  • Tampa’s Riverfront: The development boom along downtown Tampa’s riverfront continues, with projects like the 31-story luxury apartment tower Arts and Entertainment Residences and the Pendry Residences Tampa luxury riverfront hotel and condominium tower. The Tampa Convention Center is also undergoing a $38 million expansion, adding new waterfront meeting and event rooms.

2023 3rd Quarter Forecast:

  • Labor Market: The tight labor market is expected to remain steady, with the unemployment rate likely to be around 2.7%, similar to the previous quarter.
  • Job Creation: Tampa Bay is anticipated to continue as a front-runner in job creation across the state, contributing to further employment growth. Nonagricultural employment is expected to see a continued increase, which could positively impact the demand for office spaces.
  • Supply: Overall vacancy rates are projected to remain low, with a slight decrease from the previous quarter, potentially reaching around 4.4%. However, the amount of vacant sublease products on the market may continue to rise as companies adjust their space needs following the pandemic’s e-commerce boom.
  • Demand: Leasing activity is expected to show improvement compared to Q2, with an increase in new deals signed during the 3rd quarter. Positive net absorption is likely to continue, indicating a healthy demand for commercial properties in the region.
  • Economic Indicators: The Tampa Bay MSA’s unemployment rate is likely to remain at around 2.7%, which is significantly lower than the national rate of 3.6%. Employment is anticipated to continue growing in the region.

What does this mean for Tenants?

Advantages:

  • Increased rent concessions from Landlords: Landlord’s are more flexible on asking face rates, Tenant Improvement allowance and more likely to provide free rent to offset cumulative lease values. 
  • Positive Net Absorption: The market is experiencing positive net absorption, indicating that more space is being leased than vacated. This could signify a healthy and growing business environment, attracting a diverse range of companies to the region.
  • Favorable Economic Indicators: The low unemployment rate and steady job growth in Tampa Bay suggest a thriving economy. For Tenants, this means a potentially larger customer base and a higher likelihood of finding qualified employees in the area.
  • Sublease Options: More sublease options can be favorable for Tenants who prefer a shorter lease term and below market rent. 

Challenges:

  • Turn Key Options: Construction costs are still record high and the lack of turn key “Spec spaces” Landlords have available for Tenant’s who require immediate move can require Tenant’s to lease Suites do not provide the desired layout for Tenants. 
  • Sublease Market: The rise in vacant sublease products on the market could be both an advantage and a challenge for Tenants. On one hand, it provides additional options for space, potentially at a more affordable rate and shorter lease term. Subleasing comes with its own set of considerations, being subject to already agreed upon lease terms, conditions and possible constraints.

What does this mean for Landlords?

Opportunities:

  • Low Vacancy Rates For Smaller Suites: Suites under 5,000 SF and under spaces are being leased quickly.
  • Turn Key and Spec Suites: Having turn key Suites under 5,000 SF for Tenants to quickly move into will provide a competitive advantage over other vacant competing Suites for Tenants who do not have enough lead time for long construction timelines.
  • Positive Net Absorption: The positive net absorption in the market signals a healthy and growing tenant base. As more businesses seek space in the region, Landlords can expect sustained interest in their properties and a potential increase in leasing activity.

Considerations:

  • Tenant Selection: Ensuring that potential Tenants have a strong financial standing and align with the property’s intended use can help minimize risks associated with tenant turnover or payment issues.
  • Sublease Market: The increase in vacant sublease products could impact the overall leasing market. Landlords should be aware of sublease offerings in their area and assess how it may affect their property’s marketability and leasing rates.
  • Market Saturation: As demand remains strong, there may be increased development activity in certain areas. Landlords should be mindful of potential market saturation, which could lead to heightened competition and a potential impact on rental rates.
  • Tenant Retention: While attracting new Tenants is essential, Landlords should also prioritize Tenant retention. Historically, it is more cost effective to maintain a Tenant then marketing, leasing and Tenant Improvement costs to acquire a new Tenant. Maintaining positive Landlord-Tenant relationships and providing excellent customer service can help ensure Tenants choose to renew their leases, reducing turnover and associated costs.
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Operating Expense Reconciliation

 

 

What exactly is operating expense reconciliation, and why is it becoming increasingly important in the Tampa market?

As a Tenant in a commercial building in Tampa, you may be familiar with receiving an invoice from the Landlord for the reconciliation of the building’s operating expenses from the previous year. Typically, by May of each year, the Landlord will send you a notice with an invoice for any amount owed or a credit to your rent. If you are in a Full Service or Modified Gross lease, what are you receiving an additional invoice or credit in the first quarter of the following year?

Operating expense reconciliation is the process by which a Landlord calculates the actual operating expenses for a building over the previous year by reconciling the estimated budget expenses which were used for the Base Year of a lease compared to the actual expenses of the building for the previous year. The difference between the estimated expenses and the actual expenses is known as the “reconciliation amount.” If the actual expenses were higher than the estimated expenses, the Landlord will send an invoice to a Tenant for the amount due above the Base Year. If the actual expenses were lower than the estimated expenses, the Landlord will usually apply a credit of that amount to the monthly rent.

Why are operating expenses more crucial in the Tampa market? 

Hurricanes are a common occurrence in Florida, and the resulting damage can be significant and dramatically increase building insurance.  Hurricane Ian in 2022, insurance rates for commercial buildings in Tampa have been increasing dramatically over the past few years. Secondly, the value of commercial buildings has increased, especially in the City of Tampa, therefore so have the Real Estate Taxes. 

Landlords are responsible for holding an insurance policy on the building and passing on the cost of insurance to Tenants as a part of the building’s operating expenses. Depending on the type of lease you have, these pass-throughs will impact Tenants differently. A Full-Service lease, the rent includes the Tenant’s operating expenses, including insurance and are only responsible for the portion above your base year. 

If a Tenant has a Modified Gross lease with an Expense Stop, rent includes a certain amount for operating expenses that was agreed upon in the lease, and any expenses above that amount are passed on to the Tenant. For example, any increase in insurance rates will only impact a Tenant if the actual expenses exceed the expense stop.

How can Tenant’s prepare for operating expense reconciliation in the Tampa market? First and foremost, understand the terms of the lease and how the operating expenses are calculated. Always reach out to the Landlord or Property Manager with questions or concerns.

Consider negotiating the lease terms at renewal or when signing a new lease to establish the highest Base Year possible. For example, if you have a Full-Service lease, negotiating a cap on the amount rent can increase due to operating expenses. These caps often exclude non controllable expenses i.e. Real Estate Taxes and insurance but can still be beneficial. A Modified Gross lease, negotiating a higher expense stop can aid in avoiding additional pass throughs. 

Building operating expense reconciliation is a critical part of commercial leasing in the Tampa market, and it is becoming even more important due to the impact of hurricanes on insurance rates. Tenants must understand lease terms and how operating expenses are calculated. 

If your commercial lease is ending soon or questions on your operating expense pass through reconciliation, give us a call for a free consultation: 813-289-3700.

 

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1st Quarter 2023 Tampa Bay Office Market Report and Q2 Forecast

white and blue concrete building under blue sky during daytime

Important Highlights:

Tampa Bay:

Tampa Bay’s commercial real estate market is thriving, with a strong demand for office space, particularly in the downtown area. The growing population and job market in Tampa have contributed to the demand for office space, and many companies have relocated to the area in recent years. According to Forbes Tampa is ranked the number one city for small businesses and the number two emerging tech hub. 

  • Pinellas County
    • Industrial vacancy rate is 3.2%
    • $12.62 SF NNN flex/warehouse
    • $7.86 SF NN warehouse distribution
    • 258,068 SF under construction
  • Hillsborough County
    • Industrial vacancy rate is 5.2%
    • $13.98 SF NNN flex/warehouse is $13.98 SF
    • $7.04 SF NNN for warehouse distribution
    • 2,772,283 SF under construction

Office Market:

  • $35.40 PSF Class A Average
  • The direct asking rents for Class A Buildings. up Approx. 3.9% year-over-year
  • Vacancy rate got Class A Buildings is Approx. 10%
  • Turn-key spec office spaces that are move-in ready for companies with pressing deadlines continue to be in demand who do not have the time to wait for permitting and construction timelines. 

Let’s Talk Rent Numbers:

Submarket Overall Average Asking Rent-All Classes Overall Asking Rent Class A
Westshore $34.05 Sq. Ft.  $38.51 Sq. Ft.
Downtown Tampa $29.19 Sq. Ft. $31.95 Sq. Ft.
Northwest Tampa $27.65 Sq. Ft. $27.79 Sq. Ft.
South Tampa $21.00 Sq. Ft. N/A
I-75 Corridor $26.78 Sq. Ft. $26.99 Sq. Ft.
Downtown St. Petersburg $32.19 Sq. Ft. $31.55 Sq. Ft.

Building Highlights: 

  • Mixed-use developments continue to be at the forefront of new construction.
  • “Miami-based Related Group purchased 6 acres on the west bank of the Hillsborough River — what will become the Riverfront district. 
  • Ybor City developer Darryl Shaw is assembling roughly 25 acres of closely watched waterfront land along the Ybor Channel.
  • Strategic Property Partners, the developer of Water Street Tampa, has demolished the former Ardent Mills flour plant between the Channel district and downtown Tampa to make way for Water Street’s second phase.” Read more of the upcoming developments here. 

2023 2nd Quarter Forecast:

  • To sustain teamwork, camaraderie, and creative collisions, companies may adopt flexible schedules based on personnel who operate in the same teams or departments. 
  • Tampa Bay will continue to see out-of-state businesses migrate and expand to the area, and demand for under 5,000 SF office space could remain high.
  • The primary concern was the blurring of boundaries between home and work. As a consequence, throughout 2022, there was a gradual rise in the number of professionals opting for a partial return to the office, which persisted consistently month after month.

What does this mean for Tenants?

  • Tenants should evaluate what is the best long-term solution for their company, considering the well-being of the company and the possibility of a hybrid, remote, or in-office job. While vacancy rates in Tampa remain low, landlords may offer rent abatement and increased Tenant Improvement allowances due to high construction costs.
  • Tenants who delay office space matters until the last minute will find themselves at a disadvantage, with few alternatives and minimal, if any, leverage for negotiating based on construction timelines and competing availability.

What does this mean for Landlords?

  • Landlords must consider increasing Tenant Improvement allowances for construction expenses to provide basic building standards and Tenant-specific finishing to compete for the right Tenants.
  • Profit margins may be impacted by inflation, but increased rents and 3-4% annual increases can aid in the impact of inflation. Providing turn-key spec office spaces that are move-in ready for companies with pressing deadlines can help capture tenants.